A Mathematical Framework for Temporal Modeling and Counterfactual Policy Simulation of Student Dropout

In three linesTemporal modeling framework for predicting student dropout in higher education using LMS engagement data and administrative records. Penalized logistic regression on person-period rows achieves AUC 0.8405 (test). Counterfactual policy-simulation layer evaluates intervention impact on academic survival with limited positive contrasts (max ΔS 0.0819).

Summary generated by Claude — human-verified