Agentic Chunking and Bayesian De-chunking of AI Generated Fuzzy Cognitive Maps: A Model of the Thucydides Trap

In three linesAutomatic generation of feedback fuzzy cognitive maps (FCMs) from text using LLM agents to chunk text with overlaps. Convex mixing of chunk FCMs produces representative cyclic FCM knowledge graphs. Operator-level Bayesian inference generates de-chunked posterior FCMs. Demonstrated on Allison's Thucydides Trap model: 7 out of 8 FCM knowledge graphs predicted war when stimulated.

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