Agentic Chunking and Bayesian De-chunking of AI Generated Fuzzy Cognitive Maps: A Model of the Thucydides Trap

In three linesAutomatic generation of fuzzy cognitive maps (FCMs) from text using LLM agents that chunk text into overlapping segments. Convex mixing of chunk FCMs produces a cyclic FCM knowledge graph. Operator-level Bayesian inference generates "de-chunked" FCMs. Demonstration on Thucydides Trap model: 7 out of 8 FCMs predicted armed conflict. Gemini 3.1 served as chunking agent.

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