Conformal Risk Prediction for Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease Using Gradient Boosting with Distribution-Free Coverages

In three linesML framework coupling gradient boosting and conformal prediction for NAFLD risk. Evaluated on 2,599 patients (Guangzhou), achieves AUROC 0.912 internally and 0.891 external validation. Conformal coverage 91.3% at 90% nominal level. Three-tier stratification: high-risk group shows 4.7× progression rate vs. low-risk tier.

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