The Need for an External Observer Formalizing the Sufficiency Gap: A Mathematical Extension of Mixture Identifiability and Contextual Grounding in Sequence Models

In three linesTheoretical paper on sequence models' insufficiency when facing unobserved latent states. Authors formalize a mixed-regime process where a perfect predictor becomes overconfident if observed context matches the wrong latent regime. They show the sufficiency gap can only be closed by perfect revelation of latent state or equivalent verification mechanism.

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